Three Ways Dishonest Pollsters Rig the Math (and the One Question They’ll Never Ask!)
By Jack Gleason
With all the political polls flooding our TV screens and smartphones, it’s practically impossible to separate truth from blatant fabrication. Every election cycle a familiar narrative plays out across corporate media. Months before Election Day, we are told conservative candidates are trailing by double digits, common-sense reforms are falling flat, and progressive momentum is declared “inevitable.”
Many good people just give up, saying, “I don’t follow politics anymore”—and go along with whatever their social circles or the nightly news tell them. This is by design.
These “scientific” polls are presented as a neutral calculation of the public mood. But to anyone who understands campaign strategy, they represent something far more dangerous: a deliberate attempt to shape reality – they are manipulating public behavior rather than measuring it.
The Illusion of Defeat
This is blatant psychological warfare designed to achieve three specific outcomes:
- Voter demoralization: Convincing working-class and conservative voters that their ballots won’t matter tricks them into sitting out. Analysts estimate persistent “suppression polls” knock 2% to 5% off conservative turnout—more than enough to flip close elections.
- Strangle challenger fundraising: It signals to grassroots donors that any donations are “wasted money,” depriving outsider campaigns of critical operational funds.
- Induce social silencing: Everyday citizens feel isolated in their beliefs, hesitating to share their values with friends, family, or neighbors.
This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: skewed polls lead to diminished turnout, which in turn produces the exact loss the media predicted.
Media Polls Have Been Dead Wrong Before
If you think corporate polls are always right, look at recent history:
- The 2020 Presidential Race: Major network polls had Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by 17% in Wisconsin right before the election. On Election Day, the actual margin was under 1%.
- The 2022 Midterm Narrative: Leading up to election night, predictions swung wildly—first claiming Democrats would easily hold Congress, then hyping a fake “mega-wave” to set up a narrative of conservative failure when tight races went to overtime.
- The 2024 Senate Races: Outlets consistently showed conservative challengers trailing by double digits in key states, only for those races to come down to razor-thin margins.
These aren’t simple math errors. They are systemic attempts to convince voters that the fight is lost before they even vote. If the 2% to 5% “suppression effect” was removed, many of these races would have gone the other way.
How Pollsters Skew the Results
A dishonest pollster doesn’t need to make up numbers—they simply adjust their methodology:
- Tricky Questions: A biased poll asks: “Do you support common-sense gun safety regulations to reduce violent crime?” Almost anyone says yes to “safety.” But reframe it neutrally—“Do you support or oppose restricting constitutional Second Amendment rights?”—and the numbers flip. Using loaded words for leftist positions while framing conservative values harshly routinely tilts responses by 5% to 12%.
- Sample Selection & Summer Slumps: Pollsters employ rigged weighting models. By interviewing too many voters in dense liberal cities and ignoring rural areas, media polls undercount independent and conservative voters. This gets even worse during the summer months, when working-class families and rural conservatives disconnect for vacation or harvest seasons, creating a “differential nonresponse bias.”
- Multiple-Choice Traps: Standard polls force voters into pre-packaged ideological buckets. When pollsters instead ask open-ended questions—letting voters speak in their own words—economic anxiety, public safety, and government corruption blow away the media’s approved themes.
There is an honest alternative. Outfits like The Trafalgar Group proved that you can get accurate numbers by bypassing traditional traps. Instead of tedious 20-minute phone questionnaires, they deploy ultra-short 3-minute surveys across digital texts, apps, and calls. To defeat social silencing honest pollsters don’t ask people who they are voting for—they ask: “Who do you think your neighbors are voting for?”
This single question unlocks hidden voters who are hesitant to speak honestly to a pollster.
Polls, Election Night, and Late-Count Swings
The ultimate test of any poll is Election Day, yet poll predictions frequently collapse when the votes are counted. Consider the primary election for Mayor of Los Angeles. On Election Night, the initial numbers told a clear story:
- Populist challenger Spencer Pratt held second place at 25.8%, positioning him to advance to the runoff.
- Incumbent Karen Bass sat in first place at 34.3%.
- Progressive candidate Nithya Raman sat in a distant third at 22.1%—she actually conceded on Election Night.
Yet over several days, as late absentee ballots were processed behind closed doors, tens of thousands of late votes swung mysteriously:
- Raman enjoyed a 7-point surge to 29.0% (247,781 votes), jumping into second place.
- Bass saw her Election Night lead plummet by nearly 9 percentage points from 34.3%.
- Pratt fell to 25.5% (217,977 votes), eliminating him from the runoff.
Whether caused by structural counting flaws or vote-counting shenanigans, the result is identical: public trust is shattered. When election rules allow unchecked mail-in ballots, you end up with mathematical anomalies—districts reporting impossible turnouts like 95% or casting more ballots than registered voters.
CHECK THE RECEIPTS: How to Spot a Suppression Poll
The Urban Bias: Check the Cross-Tabs – the demographic breakdown behind the poll’s final headline numbers—showing how many men, women, urban, or rural voters were questioned. If a statewide poll’s cross-tabs sample 10% more urban voters than the state’s actual turnout history, it’s a suppression poll.
The Push Question: If the prompt starts with “Given that Candidate X supports [negative media phrasing]…” it’s a push-poll, not honest research.
The Hidden Data: Fake polls hide their full scripts and raw results, honest pollsters like RMG Research and Cygnal release everything.
Why the “Un-Campaign” Beats the Pollsters
When everyday citizens treat corporate polling as absolute truth, they hand victory to establishment insiders without a fight.
This is why upstart candidates are using a new approach. The Un-Campaign Blueprint shows that real political reform happens when regular citizens—small business owners, teachers, farmers, and community leaders—step up to run for public office.
While polling tricks target big national races, their psychological fallout trickles down to local communities where conservatives may decide to sit out. When an underdog conservative decides to run, the establishment’s first weapon is “You aren’t in the polls, so why bother?”
Candidates can overcome that tactic by executing three simple operational rules:
- Ignore the Fake Polls: Treat them as messaging tools built to influence behavior, not scientific forecasts.
- Bypass “Chase the Vote” Door-Knocking: Un-Campaign candidates don’t need to waste time chasing unlikely voters. By shifting to a strategy of “Feeds Over Flyers,” outsiders can dominate hyper-local social media, short-form video, and digital town halls. Take a page from groups like Turning Point USA: “chase the ballot.” Organize local ride-to-the-polls drives for seniors and working folks, and focus on urgent, super-local issues that motivate the people who actually turn out: active Conservatives, demoralized Democrats, and swing Independents.
- The 5-Point Rule: If corporate media claims an outsider candidate is down by 10 points, assume the real race is within 2 points—and double down on digital outreach and ballot chasing.
Conservatives, get involved. Political races aren’t decided by statistical models built in newsroom ivory towers; they’re decided by the people who show up. When regular citizens take back the political process from professional politicos, these fake polls are just ignored.
Next time you see a headline claiming an outsider candidate can’t win, don’t leave an angry comment. Find an Un-Campaign candidate fighting for your community, share their content online, help them get their message in front of the voters who matter, and give a neighbor a ride to the polls.
Since 2009, Jack Gleason has been a conservative, common-sense, political consultant at the municipal, state, House, Senate and presidential level. If you have story ideas or comments his email is [email protected]and his always-free Substack is jackgleason.substack.com.
I have never been ask by a pollster. They know who they are calling. If you look at a poll break down it's always has more Dems than Republicans.
Yep, and there entire goal is to make conservatives believe they can't win so they sit home and don't vote.
Do you know what else at least one of them does? They report their methodology correctly with the poll but when they summarize their results for a press release, change some things. Example: Their methodology correctly states they polled "people who live here" (making their sampling size correct) but their press releases say they polled "American citizens." They can't be dinged for incorrect polling and as far as I know, lying on a press release isn't criminal behavior. I think they are just counting on talking heads in the news media not reading the methodology section published with the poll.
All polls are designed to influence the uninformed. They have little to do with reality.
UNIFORMED = DNC VOTERS.
.. buddy in N.C would get pollster calls a good bit of the time when he supported Dems. After Covid he now supports MAGA and guess what? He received a couple pollster calls and said he would vote for Trump, he has not received a call from a pollster since October of 2023.
No one has ever polled me on politics. I get surveys from people I buy stuff from, but I ignore them.
I think the demons who keep showing the polls that make it appear their party candidate or policy is gaining in popularity are selling "hopium" to their dummycrats who would sit it out if they didn't see the possibility of the demon candidate winning. And they are trying to demoralize the republicans or conservatives who might think it isn't worth bothering to go vote if they see really high numbers.
On election night 2016, I watched the NYT meter swing from Hillary=99% all the way to Trump=100%. They were 180 degrees off.
Among the worst, but often cited, are RCP polling results. They use aggregate polling to achieve a desired result. Mixing sample polls of adults, registered and likely voters does not provide accurate results. Yet, they are often cited by the LSM.
The reason they are rigging the polls is to make it legit when the elections are stolen and why will the elections be stolen? because traitors like Thune haven't been removed and jailed for treason. RINO = BACKSTABBER = DEM = TRAITOR.
Yep, as long as the msm can report a reason for why candidate x lost or won then most people will be satisfied with the result.
Trump had bedrock unshakeable support before he flipped 180 degrees,thats gone and he is in trouble.
Most poll people have an agenda,so do voters and Trump done pizzed his voters away.
I don't think he has, we can't get a real poll though.
Trump has dementia and it is getting worse. That explains his insane rantings, 180 flips and other bad decisions, not to mention his 2 diaper nurses that follow him everywhere now.
You must be one of those, "Trump isn't doing what I want him to" people.
Dishonest pollsters? Is there any other kind?
If the polls have Trump doing well, they are good. If the polls have Trump doing bad then they are rigged.
Like Dem elections, their process is riddled with unexplainable anomalies.
What do the polls say about "Tent Peg" Trump soiling himself daily?
What about the polls showing that you are a total Idiot?
One of the most absurd polls you will ever see are the ones for the TX Senate race. They have Talarico ahead of Paxton! There is no way Texans will elect that freak! The blacks are not behind him and Catholic Hispanics aren't either. That leaves Dallas and San Antonio to vote for him.
TelaFreako
Polls didn't use to be a thing. Candidates were judged on their principals and positions on matters of concern to the electorate. Polls and how they're worded are used to sway opinions. You never hear how they conducted these polls like what were the questions asked and was the poll fairly divided between Liberal and conservative potential voters. Personally, I don't give any credence to any poll.
Another common trick is approval ratings.
It conveys absolutely nothing about why someone would disapprove, or why they're disappointed.
Often I would give Trump low approval marks because he's not lining Democrats up against a wall and shooting them, but my disapproval would be taken as proof that people have soured on conservatives and want Democrats in power.
Many people will "disapprove" because Trump is not doing what they want him to do. These people seem to think he can do anything he wants, and judges won't stop him.
But the implication the media goes with is that his approval numbers are down, and more people will pull the "D" lever. That can't be inferred from the simple number because it doesn't distinguish whether people would prefer something more to the left or more to the right.
A similar situation applies to Democrat candidates. Their approval numbers might be low because a bunch of the DSA nitwits are angry that the Democrat hasn't implemented full communism yet. Those commies are not going to vote Republican, and they are going to show up and pull the "D" lever because that's what they do. Heck, many of them will vote several times.
Media is the propaganda arm of the Demorat commie party!
And for some reason they can't find proof of it. You would think there would be thousands of whistleblowers. There has to be a way to fix this, it has been going on my whole life.
education system is run by commies, for at least 60 years! Turning out demorat commies
Nothing they do would ever even get off the groung if the media didn't lay the groundwork ahead of time, descend upon everything that threatens their deceptions, and frantically covers up everything they're desperate to keep buried.
… across every tentacle of their incestuous, rigged, and unfathomably corrupt system (aka "Our Democracy").
I used to frequent the 538 comment section, and those nuts were nuttier than nuts.
There was no reasoning with them. Someone at 538 had FB block me from their comments.
They are so villainously rabid, you can almost see them foaming at the mouth while they type out the most ridiculous diatribes on every topic.
The far left, if you noticed, have been raging lunatics since the 1990s, at least. Most likely since forever. Even before the colonies.
There is something satanic about their obsessions.
They are just like the MAGA posters here.
So, whether you are a troll, or not. Either could be the case here, political siloes exist. The right, in the future if/when they’re faced with a reality that contradicts what they believe, you will see who legit were, and who were posing.
This concept is ancient, not new.
Be sure that isn’t you, if you can. I can tell you it is hard. I don’t always succeed. But I reassess multiple times per year. At least 3. Solely because I don’t trust large groups of people to be right. ON anything. Especially once their POV’s top dogs get power.
Power corrupts.
But do you do that, or are you just bloviating because yours isn’t in power? LOL
That’s the question!
You want to read about rabid, go to the LA Times comment section. They were going on about how great St Fauci is
Trust me! Likely the one or two of the same people on Silver’s old 538 comment section. Even if not, I believe you. They’re insane.
And all of them, to a one, hell bent on performing for each other and trying to “out-left” one another.
It be comical if not so tragic.
Same with huffpo, can't even get past the headlines anymore.
Same with huffpo, can't even get past the headlines anymore.
I hear you. Joe’s gay brother bans me after about 24 hours. He is such a thin skinned Nancy. Have probably had 50 different accounts there, but finally gave up. Which is what (s)he was hoping for. At least Joe is man enough to never ban me.
If all you consumed was MSM information you would believe the opposite of what you believe today. I actually feel sorry for them, seeing so many people being deceived and voting against what is best for them and the country is hard to stomach. We are living in two different realities.
Agreed, somewhat. Often, I experienced when dealing with them, that they generally love the narrative. They want to hate. Still feel bad for them. But they chose who they wanted to be.
If the DNC is bankrupt and in debt, how are they affording frivolous rigged polls.
People with deep pockets like the owners of the networks who are Liberal, socialist and dare I say Marxist/Communist also.
Feudalists.
THEY are not the ones affording it It's THEIR machine, just like MSMedia, I. E. TV in general, is run by a total of six oligarch…
Look it up…
Left wing polls are nothing more than public manipulation. Over half of all polling is done by entities left of the political center. Since one rotten potato can ruin the entire bag, polling should be done away with.
If democrats are so popular , than why do democrats have to cheat to win elections?
My poll says that 85% of America is voting against the democrat party .
FACT1
And why do most of the close elections end up favoring the Democrats? If it was honest, close elections would be split 50/50.
This is why I ignore polls, period.
You can put the biased Fox News Poll right up there with the worst of them!
I was called once, by a pollster, several years back. The caller wanted a yes or no, or an agree or disagree. She got flustered when I tried to just give my opinion, that sometimes I agree and sometimes I don't, depending on the issue.
Consider the candidates, their history, their words. To Hell more and more and more with the media. They are the ones trying to advance an ideology, and they are the ones who will stoop to any means and methods whatsoever to get the results they want. They are the great and terrible deceivers. Go with your own instincts.
In person polling outside of planned parenthood vs. a shooting range is going to skew the results even more. Pollsters know where to go to get the narrative they want to push.
Pollsters are like scientists. The research results reflect what the buyer wants to hear
Mad Scientists? I wonder if they will look like Fraud Fauci?
Psychology only works on people who don't know it's being used on them
Something you’ll never see the fake pollsters do is a post election poll to test the accuracy of their methodology.
It’s really simple, after an election use your standard sampling technique but ask “who did you vote for?” If their standard sampling technique is structured properly, they should get a polling result that closely matches the election result.
Ive learned. If a poll shows Dems up by 10%…it means they are cooked. If a poll shows Republicans behind by 8-12%…they are wayyyy ahead.
I never listen to public polls and don't see the need for them.
If you know who you are voting for, why care what anyone else thinks?
The real reason is that it tickles the need in some for "inside baseball" They feel more vested in the process.
Polls ?
I gotta pole for them right here !
My very own Pole has the dumb dims lost in the woods, just east of Germany.
Polls are useless. Nobody in their right mind would take the results of any poll seriously.
There are the weak of mind who read a poll and think; Poll sez EVERYBODY'S voting THAT way, Well I want to be in the majority…
Karen's are over qualified in THAT category!!
the only poll they are up on is the one up their back side
I know we’ve all heard it before, but it’s not a lot of effort and will give us a win. Make sure to take at least one person with you to vote. Some people just need to be pushed or prodded. Preferably, you would take more, but if each of us brings one other person to vote, we will crush the midterms.
So…In NC Cooper is nine points ahead(?) of Whatley. I been hearing that since day one. Cooper beat McCrory at 2 am when special ballots came in that were enough to turn a 1% loss into 1% victory for Cooper. He cheated!
Not to mention, the democrats do more TV ads. You’ll see months of TV ads, then the week before you might see a few republican ads. Not to mention, the ads that appear on games. If you don’t pay for ad free game, Some company’s say they don’t have political ads, but they sneak in there and they are always a democrat ad.
Politicians are not born; they are excerted. (Marcus Aurelius Cicero)
EXCELLENT AND TRUTHFUL Article! Once dated a woman who worked in the Polling industry, Who would often state;
"We can make the numbers say whatever we want!"
I just don't believe anything the media or Congress says
Polls should be illegal and those running them tried as felons!
Whenever you see the poll saying 1,500 of likely voters, that is hardly the pulse of American voters and the poll should immediately discredited and thrown in the trash.
I've been telling people this for years! Polls aren't there to see what the people think, they're there to tell the people what they should think. Polling 6 months before any election should be classified as election interference and outlawed.
Polls are where everything seems to take a dump on common sense and objectivity. Even the ones here on TGP are poorly worded half the time.
That has always been their purpose. Always.
It also tells the media which popular ideas to hide, and to rephrase less popular ones.
All public polls are meant to manipulate, not inform.
Never believe the polls that are rigged for dems. Recent example telafreako in Texas. No one believes that b.s.
I had to do polling during my undergraduate work. The day, the wording and the time all play factors in how you get answers.
One gigantic Psy-Op to suppress voting from the opposition. Yet, the hypocrites that they are speak of Voter ID as a measure of suppression.
SMH.
The MSM are a propaganda machine designed to make you beleive the views of less than 10% of the people are the views of over 90% of the people……
but but MsNow says they are for WE THE PEOPLE? THAT'S NOT TRUE? OF COURSE NOT.
AND I'M NOT PART OF THEIR 'WE' ANYWAY! I'M PART OF THE US OF THE USA!
Great article by Joe.
Most reporting just complains about rigged polls. This is a good detailed explanation of the methodology used to do the rigging, and ways you & I can detect it. Thanks Joe!
Pretty much just said NEAR the same thing! Well done!
Yeah they always start rigging polls once it gets closer and closer to any election. Polls, news, nothing that comes out of them has any truth to it once we start getting there.
They are not "honest brokers" of information… they are propaganda pushers.
You have it backwards. They have to try to be more accurate when election day is close or else they get caught by the real-world results.
And it is important (as a manipulation) to do the 'polls' that try to influence opinion early, very early if possible.
Five months before an election, usually very few voters have thought about who they will vote for. So, if they read that everybody is going to support Hiram Q Walker, most feel some desire to conform and express the same opinion, and once they do so, even in their own minds, it is harder to get them to change their minds. If they express that opinion openly, in front of friends, family, co-workers, or neighbors, they become VERY hard to convince otherwise.
The leftist press has always toadied for the self-described 'elites'.
Who was the leader of the liberal wing of the Republican Party when I was young, Nelson Rockefeller.
We used to sing, to Rock of Ages:
Rockefeller's not for me, and he's not for G-O-P.
He is for the liberal slate, and he's for the welfare state…
Whoever actually owns and controls the mainstream media provides the biggest clue to who really sits at the peak of the pinnacle of the world power pyramid.
Only when the line of hierarchal authority is traced back from the MSM owners to the well-concealed satanic powers can the “Father of Lies” be correctly identified.
Well, you have to bear in mind that the evil crooks that are planning all this garbage for humankind, especially the West, actually do not want to take centerstage but rather hide in the wings using surrogates. So it is not quite as clear as you would think. But there are many clues: 1. They have enormous financial resources 2. They are closely associated with the WEF 3. They are even stronger and more active in Europe than in the US, and have basically the same plan of destruction and subjugation for both (combination Cloward-Piven and cultural overrunning). 4. Multigenerational as families or as secret societies are. 5. Favorably predisposed to war. 6. Favorably predisposed to using Jews as their frontmen, which is not to say that average Jews are in agreement with their program.
I've seen this for years. The good news is that people are wise to it and it's ticking them off! Jack.
Polls never reach 10% of the population.
More accurately 0.005% of likely voters or 0.00005% of the population.
You exaggerate numbers, but you have the plot down right.
I believe it's right around 10-12%, but they still sample democrat voters at like 36%. A 50 point swing in even the honest-ish pollings.
I believe it's right around 10-12%, but they still sample democrat voters at like 36%. A 50 point swing in even the honest-ish, of pollings.
If you are dumb enough to be influenced by polls the nit's probably better that you aren't voting.
Tricky questions like would you rather be tortured or vote for joe, leads to reporting that states joe is ahead by 98%.
Plus, they weight the result by asking: 60% registered D, 25% registered I, and then 15% registered R. Further skewed by the majority of the respondents being from larger Cities.
Thune loving Fox News polls are suppression polls, no boudt adout it.
HAHA THAT'S FUNNY! ANY MORON CAN MAKE A CHART NOW! DNC DOES IT ALL THE TIME.
IT'S FULL OF LIES AND PROPAGANDA. THEIR PROTEST SIGNS ARE EVEN MORE HYSTERICAL!
All polls favoring people I agree with are true.
All polls favoring people I disagree with are fake.
Do I have that right, Joe?
I might have to much a few paint chips to get you your level of logic. But I’m trying.
Who gives a crap about a pollster and their polls? They are paid to get the results they produce.
Did you even read the story? Your comment suggests you did not.
Excellent article!
Keep it up!
I tend to ignore polls altogether. They may be useful for the candidates to understand how receptive the people are to their campaigns, but for an individual voter like myself, it's not going to affect my chosen vote one way or the other.
The main stream media is the most culpable, evil entity in the country.
Yep, everything else is a result of their failure to report the facts. Our schools would not be indoctrination centers if they were to report what is happening inside of them.
After this Weeks Fauci Chronicles America has learned the Deep Ties and Lies of the Kommie MSM mouth piece…
These NAZI's Backed Fauci at every turn and not just America but Millions World wide were laid to rest as they Championed Fauci and His Science….
People who are not dumb as a Chuck, have had their eyes Wide Open. No one will view the MSM from here on out if you have any smarts. They helped Kill Millions around the Earth, this is who they are…. This with the Fauci Chronicles this week should put them out of Business…
Also Never believe a Poll, it's junk deceiving Result they want you to take as The Gospel of God…
There is a lot of truth in this article, and Dems have been the consistent beneficiaries of deliberately twisted polling for as long as it has been common. The polls always show more real numbers as elections get closer, because most pollsters do not want to have a terrible reputation among paying customers, and elections are the only time their work is really checked by anything in the real world.
FAKE polls also prepare the system for dragged-out election "nights" lasting days and weeks. If the FAKE polls show a clear (FAKE) winner, it might take time to get all the necessary ballots printed and submitted into the system for a close call, but still a FAKE victory.
That is how democRats "win," and that is what happened to President Donald J. Trump in 2020, where the result on election night was clear.
The pedo-puppet only "won" after millions of extra (illegal and FAKE) ballots were processed and counted.
Polls are manipulated by BOTH parties, so they are really just a waste of time at this point. People vote according to the pain they're feeling. The economy ALONE will be the end of Donald J Trump, the absolute worst "president" in US History, and quite possibly, the last.
I just hang up on the worthless filth…
Look no farther than the unprincipled notion of the "wasted vote" accusation heard by every non-aligned voter from the partisan power-hungry.
Emphasis on "unprincipled."
The average voter embodies the finest conscience that money can buy.