A Fox News Poll of 649 likely voters in Alabama released on Thursday and conducted between Monday and Wednesday of this week shows Democratic candidate Doug Jones with an eight point lead over Republican candidate Judge Roy Moore in the December 12 special election for the Alabama U.S. Senate seat once held by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, 50 percent to 42 percent, with a 3.5 percent margin of error.
That poll stands in striking contrast to a Fox10/Strategy Research poll of 3,000 likely voters in Alabama released on Wednesday and conducted on Monday of this week that shows Moore with a six point lead over Jones, 49 percent to 43 percent, with a two percent margin of error.
The 14 point differential between the two polls conducted over the same three day period contributes to the great uncertainty surrounding the election thrown into chaos by unsubstantiated allegations of sexual harassment made against Judge Moore over the past week by several women…
…Another unusual aspect of the Fox News Poll released on Thursday that shows Democrat Jones with an eight point lead over Moore is that it appears to contain a sample of Alabama likely voters in which 51 percent voted for Donald Trump and 48 percent voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential election.
The FOX10 poll also includes a sampling of respondents where 51% voted for President Trump and 48% voted for Hillary Clinton – a 3 point margin.
In 2016 President Trump won Alabama with 62% of the vote to Hillary Clinton with 34.4% of the vote — a 27 point margin.
In a estimate using simple statistics, if the polls used the same ratios that President Trump won by in the election, Judge Roy Moore would lead Democrat Jones by 30 points (60% to 30%) in the Fox10 poll and by 15 points (51% to 35%) in the Fox News poll.