Trump Still Outperforming Cruz, Sanders and Hillary! Cruz and Sanders Both Done Officially in 5 Days!

Also posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com by Jim Hoft on April 21st

 Update to post on April 16th

Donald Trump, after New York, increased his results against Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in the elections to date. The results of elections in primaries and caucuses to date (as of Thursday April 21st) show that Trump continues to outshine all the candidates.

Delegate Count 4-21 Rep

Delegate Count 4-21 Dem

Charts by Joe Hoft (data from RealClearPolitics)

Trump has –

** More primary wins (18) ** More overall state wins (21) ** The highest percentage of primary wins (82%) ** The highest percent of overall state wins (64%) ** The highest percent of primary delegates (68%) ** The highest percent of overall delegates (60%) ** And Trump now leads all candidates in the highest percent of overall votes (58%).

And Donald Trump was competing against 16 primary opponents.

(Note although not noted at RealClearPolitics.com caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to these results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)

To date, the Democratic race has been tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 502 to 38 for Sanders which are not included in these totals.) It continues to be very clear that both Cruz and Sanders benefit from caucuses over primaries.

As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity too. Cruz needs two out of every three delegates next Tuesday to stay alive but he is way behind Trump in polling and currently in 3rd place in some of these states and therefore will be done Tuesday per data from RCP.

Bernie too will be mathematically eliminated from gaining enough delegates by next Tuesday. He currently needs a little less than half of the delegates next week to stay alive but is also behind in the polls to Hillary.

Bernie, like Cruz, will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright next week.

Trump Only Needs 53% of Remaining Delegates to Win – In a Week He’ll Need Less than 50% and Cruz Will Be Mathematically Finished

Also posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com on April 20, 2016 by Jim Hoft

On Tuesday Donald Trump won New York with over 60% of the votes giving him a comfortable lead over Senator Ted Cruz in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Trump walked away with 89 of the 95 delegates and nearly half a million votes. Senator Cruz unfortunately won no delegates after winning only 15% of the vote.

Delegate Count 4-19 after NY AP

As of today Trump only needs 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. Unfortunately for Cruz next week there are five more primaries out East and Donald Trump is the heavy favorite in these states. As reported previously Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by next Tuesday, April 26th. On the other hand, with conservative estimates, Trump will need less than 50% of the remaining delegates after next week to win the election.

Delegate Count 4-19 after NY2

In recent weeks many Cruz supporters have reported that Cruz was on a roll. In an article titled “This is the week that Ted Cruz won the Republican nomination”, Redstate cheered –

  • “Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump”
  • “Cruz domination”
  • “Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237.”
  • “Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz.  Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.”

It now looks like this was all biased and hopeful expectations.

‘Lying Ted’ Cruz tweets Trump about Recent Votes that are Double the Reportable Numbers!

Also posted by Jim Hoft at www.thegatewaypundit.com

Ted Cruz tweeted Donald Trump today and stated that he has won the last five (Republican Contests) in a row and more than 1.3mm voted for the Senator over this same time period.

Cruz Tweet

But these numbers are not what are reported on the RealClearPolitics (RCP) website. For the caucuses in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota the only votes reported were in Utah where Cruz reportedly won 122,567 votes. In the primary in Wisconsin Cruz won 531,129 votes. Combined this is only a little over 650,000 votes or about half the number of votes that Cruz says he has won.

Also, the Arizona primary was the same night as the Utah caucus, so the Senator must be suggesting that the Utah event ended after the Arizona primary in order to make his claim that he won the last five contests in a row.

Ironically the very first response to Cruz’s tweet calls Cruz a ‘sellout’ and a ‘liar’.

Cruz Tweet Response

The Senator’s tweet is even more remarkable after the manner in which he captured votes in the caucuses in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota. Much has been written about these contests being stolen by the Republican establishment and Cruz. If Cruz wanted to win the election instead of the caucuses he would have stood up and called for actual elections in these states but instead he is bragging about his ‘wins’ which is no doubt killing the image he wants to portray of himself as the fair minded and democratic statesman.

Unfortunately for Cruz the next and final 16 state races are all primaries and Donald Trump is the heavy favorite in the next six state elections that will be held on the East Coast and many of the rest. As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity in many of these state elections by April end too.

In addition, Cruz is lagging behind all four of the current candidates in wins, delegates and votes (and this is after recording wins for him in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota where no votes or wins are reported by RCP.) The results of elections in primaries and caucuses to date (as of Sunday April 17th) show that Trump outshines all the candidates.

Trump has Donald Trump has:

** More primary wins (17)

** More overall state wins (20)

** The highest percentage of primary wins (81%)

** The highest percent of overall state wins (63%)

** The highest percent of primary delegates (65%)

** The highest percent of overall delegates (58%)

** And Trump ties Hillary for the highest percent of overall votes (57%).

It is clear that Cruz wants to send a message that he is on a roll but in less than 9 days he will be mathematically out of the race and falling in popularity. This tweet was not a good idea for Cruz who Trump calls ‘Lying Ted’.

Trump outperforming Hilary, Cruz and Sanders! Cruz and Sanders both done on April 26th!

This was also posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com by Jim Hoft on April 16.

Donald Trump is not only outperforming Ted Cruz in the election to date, he also outperforms Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as well. The results of elections in primaries and caucuses to date (as of Sunday April 17th) show that Trump outshines all the candidates.

Delegate Count 4-17 Rep

Delegate Count 4-17 Dem

Trump has more primary wins (17), more overall state wins (20), the highest percentage of primary wins (81%), the highest percent of overall state wins (63%), the highest percent of primary delegates (65%), the highest percent of overall delegates (58%), and he ties Hillary for the highest percent of overall votes (57%).

(This data above is obtained from the RealClearPolitics.com website. Caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to the results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)

To date, the Democratic race is much tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 469 to 31 for Sanders.) Also, it is very clear that both Cruz and Sanders benefit from caucuses over primaries.

With the next and final 16 state races all being primaries both Trump and Hillary should benefit. As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity in many of these state elections by April end too.

Bernie too most likely will be mathematically eliminated from gaining enough delegates by April 26th. He currently has 1040 delegates and needs 2382 to win the election which means he needs 1342 of the remaining 1627 delegates to win the nomination. There are only 16 caucuses between Tuesday in New York and June 14th. There are 631 delegates between now and April 26th to be gained and Hillary is leading in most of these states. Bernie will need at least 326 of the 631 delegates distributed by April 26th to remain in the race and even if he gains this many, he will have to win all the remaining races to have enough delegates to win the nomination. With Hillary leading in these East Coast states it is very probable that Bernie, like Cruz, will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th.

 

 

Trump Way Ahead of Cruz in Wins, Delegates and Popular Vote – After New York Cruz Should Begin Exit Strategy

Trump Leads in Wins, Delegates and Popular Vote

According to Real Clear Politics,as of April 10 in the Republican Presidential race, Donald Trump is way ahead of Senator Cruz in wins, delegates and the popular vote.

Delegate Count 4-10

(Chart by Joe Hoft)

Trump currently has twice as many wins as Cruz, and nearly one and half times as many delegates and popular votes as Cruz.  What is really telling is the difference in primary wins.  Primaries are where every vote is counted and thus appear more democratic than caucuses where all sorts of irregularities can take place.  Trump has 17 primary wins to Cruz’s 4.

Cruz has only nine wins total and five are caucuses where Cruz has gained 177 delegates to Trumps 96. It’s clear Cruz has benefited from caucus indescretions which according to some are a pattern of his campaign.  The only reports of voter scandal in this campaign have been with the Cruz camp, including saying Carson was dropping out of the race before the Iowa caucus and in manipulating and stealing delegates after primaries take place.

Trump will be Blowing Away Cruz after New York

NY Poll April 10 RCP

New York State Poll Numbers from Real Clear Politics as of April 10

Currently Trump is polling greater than 54% in New York. The state primary held on April 19th allocates 14 out of 95 delegates available to the overall winner and the winner in each congressional district takes 3 delegates if over 50% of the vote in the district while a candidate must clear 20% of the vote in order to win any delegates in a district.

It is clear Trump will win the 14 statewide delegates but what is yet unclear is the number of delegates Trump will win in each congressional district as well as whether Cruz will win any delegates at all based on his current poll numbers being less than 20%. Assuming Trump wins the 14 statewide delegates and conservatively 2 delegates from each of the 27 districts, with Cruz and Kasich splitting the remaining 27, Trump would end up with 68 delegates, Kasich 14 and Cruz 13.  This is conservative for Trump as he will most likely win more than 50% of the vote in some districts and therefore all 3 delegates.  This is also generous towards Cruz who isn’t even at 20% of the vote statewide and has to have at least 20% of the votes and more than Kasich with Trump not gaining 50% in any district to gain a delegate.

Only 190,000 voted in the 2012 New York state Republican primary.  This low voter turnout was due in part to Romney running away with the race but turnouts have been very high in 2016 in large part due to Trump.  In the general election Romney gained more than 2 million New York votes.  If we assume conservatively that Trump gains a half a million votes in the Republican primary which is about half of what he gained in Florida and Cruz gains the number of votes proportionally based on current poll numbers, Trump will have accumulated nearly 9 million votes to date in the election cycle.

Delegate Count 4-10 w NY

(Chart by Joe Hoft)

Cruz Exit Strategy Begins

After the New York primary, based on today’s numbers and polling data, Trump will have a nearly 5 to 1 ratio over Cruz in primaries. Trump will have 150% of the number of delegates as Cruz.  He will have amassed nearly 150% of the number of votes as Cruz.

With the following week having primaries in five more East Coast states, it will be time for Cruz to begin his exit strategy. Cruz will be unable to win the Republican nomination outright after April 26th.  He will need more delegates than are available and Trump will have a nearly 6 to 1 ratio over Cruz in primaries.    Trump also will have won more than half of the 50 state’s contests with nearly two and a half times Cruz in wins.

The longer Cruz hangs on after the April primaries the more dissatisfied Republican voters will be with Cruz.Calls will come for Cruz to resign and the voters will show it.  Cruz’s strategy of taking the election from a popular candidate, who will have won nearly six times the number of primaries as he, will become unreasonable and classless.

If Cruz (or anyone else for that matter) were to take the election from Trump at a convention it will be impossible for Cruz to sway the votes of people in his own party, yet alone Independents and Democrats, after having taken the election in such a circus. The attacks on Cruz by the media will replicate those of Trump attackers and the election will fall to either Sanders or Clinton.

Very sharp conservative Cruz backers like Mark Levin hopefully are now beginning to realize that for the good of the party and the country, and to win the overall election, the best thing Cruz can do is step out of the race and be a graceful supporter of the eventual Republican candidate, Donald Trump.

From that point on the call should be #NeverAnotherObama!

 

 

North Korea Jamming GPS Far More Serious Than Being Reported

N Korea Leader

It was reported earlier this week that North Korea has been jamming GPS signals near its border but what wasn’t told is the severity of this issue.

Per FOX News

North Korea is jamming GPS devices in South Korea, affecting hundreds of passenger jets, commuters, Uber drivers and commercial fishing boats while raising alarm bells in the Pentagon, multiple defense officials confirmed to Fox News Wednesday.

As reported by FOX, this is in retaliation to the military drills being performed near its border by the US and South Korea.

Popular Mechanics reported this week that North Korea is jamming signals and the disruptions that affect the Global Positioning System (GPS) are affecting air and naval traffic near the demilitarized zone that separates North and South Korea. Popular Mechanics also notes that the Incheon International Airport—which serves the greater Seoul metropolitan area— is affected and it serviced nearly 50 million passengers in 2015, making it one of the busiest airports in the world.

Per Popular Mechanics – South Korean officials stress that the attacks haven’t led to any serious GPS disruptions, as aircraft can also use the older Inertial Navigation System (INS). INS doesn’t rely on outside signals and is jam-proof.

However, North Korea’s GPS jamming goes much further than is being reported and it is much more dangerous as well. Per a Captain from a large commercial airline (who chooses to remain anonymous), authorities are not sure if the North Koreans are only jamming the signal or are also ‘dragging it off’ which would cause a ‘map shift’ that would cause the GPS system to show a location different than actual. If this were to occur while an airliner was using GPS, the airliner could land up to 3 miles off target or incur dangerous situations with high ground.

Pilots flying anywhere near Korea, including Japan, are warned of this situation. When GPS goes out, the pilots are forced to use older systems that are not as accurate. This is happening at the worst possible time – at the critical moment just before landing. This is not only a ‘nuisance problem’ but also has serious ‘flight safety implications’. Commercial pilots in the area are now being warned of these implications.

 

Cruz Supporter Agrees – Cruz Cannot Win Outright Come April 26th

Also posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com

Delegate count 4-7

Pro Cruz supporter and Conservative Review writer Robert Eno agrees that Cruz will be knocked out of race by April 26th.  But overall he lets his bias for Cruz overtake good judgment.  In rebutting my projection details he ultimately agrees that Cruz will need more delegates than are available in the Republican Presidential race come April 26th.

Eno agrees and states “Hoft got that right”.

By agreeing, you would expect this Cruz supporter to ask Canadian-born Cruz to get out of the race in the same fashion that Cruz scolded Governor John Kasich to do the same when it was clear Kasich had no chance of gaining enough delegates to win the election (i.e. needing more delegates than are available).  Eno does not go there.  Instead, he argues through a series of misguided projections that Cruz still has a chance??!??

Eno argues that Cruz will take a third of the delegates in New York by agreeing with my conservative estimate saying “Hoft is probably most correct in his New York analysis”. However, he doesn’t accept this as conservative estimate but rather projects this is the norm.  He argues that Cruz will do well in New York but based on yesterday’s miniscule turnout for Cruz in the Bronx and Trump’s massive turnout and poll numbers greater than 50% pro-Trump, it looks like Trump will easily win more than 60 delegates in New York.

Eno goes on to estimate Cruz wins in nearly every other state. He estimates a Cruz win in delegates in Pennsylvania where Trump is up 20+%, with Trump barely winning the rest of the primaries. By being so aggressive in his estimates he shows his bias.

Eno doesn’t account for a significant event like the Cruz hooker scandal making the front pages. The main reason for Trump’s eventual nomination, which Eno clearly does not consider but clearly agrees with, is that come April 26th there will no longer be enough delegates for Cruz to win outright and most Republicans will see that Cruz’s only chance to win is by stealing the election.

Republicans have had enough of sleazy politicians from either party.

 

April – Still Cruz’s Last Hurrah

As posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com

Senator Ted Cruz won Wisconsin last night but that does not change the course of the 2016 GOP primary.

Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination.

Donald Trump still leads Cruz by over 200 delegates.

Even after Wisconsin Ted Cruz will not have enough delegates to win the election.

Delegate count 4-7

By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.

Actually, in only 3 weeks, on April 26th, it will be clear that Ted Cruz cannot win.

Delegate count detail through NY 4-7

 

This is in part because New York is leaning heavily towards Trump who leads according to polls listed at Real Clear Politics by as much as 36%. New York has a Republican primary where the delegates are split proportionally. So even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates, it won’t be enough. This is because come April 26th, there are five Republican Presidential primaries and three of these are winner take all (WTA). All three of these states are in the East where polls show Trump leading (Maryland and Pennsylvania) or there is no polling available with the state highly likely leaning towards Trump (Delaware).

Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.

Based on current numbers, come April 26th, Cruz will need 640 delegates to win the election but only 621 will be available.

Then Cruz’s only chance at the end of April to win the election is the highly unlikely scenario where Trump doesn’t gain enough delegates to win the nomination outright and that the Republican elites in a contested convention support Cruz.

Delegate count detail through June

Even if there were a contested convention, it is unlikely that the elites would offer the Presidency to Cruz over some other establishment candidate. The only other scenario is that Cruz hangs on and takes the candidate delegates from Kasich and Rubio for example, and hopes this is enough to overtake Trump. This, too, is a far out strategy.

** Cruz may have a chance in picking up the RNC superdelegates but if these GOP party elites all vote for Cruz they can expect a revolt like they’ve never seen.

If Cruz hangs on and doesn’t concede to Trump at the end of April, like Kasich is currently doing, Cruz comes across as unrealistic, out of touch and a sore loser.

 

April – Cruz’s Last Hurrah!

Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination by the end of April. Actually in only 3 weeks, on April 26th, Cruz will be no longer able to win enough delegates to win the Republican nomination.

 

Rep Del Count 4-3(chart from Google)

Currently Cruz has only 463 delegates. Even if Cruz wins Wisconsin, which is a state whose delegates are winner take most (WTM), he still will not have enough delegates to win the election by April 26th. This is in part because New York is leaning heavily towards Trump who leads according to polls listed at Real Clear Politics by as much as 36%. New York has a Republican primary where the delegates are split proportionally. So even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates, it won’t be enough. This is because come April 26th, there are five Republican Presidential primaries and three of these are winner take all (WTA). All three of these states are in the East where polls show Trump leading (Maryland and Pennsylvania) or there is no polling available with the state highly likely leaning towards Trump (Delaware). Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.

Rep Del Count April 16 Project

(Chart by Joe Hoft)

Based on the current picture, come April 26th, Cruz will need 687 delegates to win the election but only have 634. Then Cruz’s only chance at the end of April to win the election is the highly unlikely scenario where Trump doesn’t gain enough delegates to win the nomination outright and that the Republican elites in a contested convention support Cruz. Even if there were a contested convention, it is unlikely that the elites would offer the Presidency to Cruz over some other establishment candidate. The only other scenario is that Cruz hangs on and takes other candidate delegates from Kasich and Rubio for example, and hopes this is enough to overtake Trump. This too is a far out strategy.

If Cruz hangs on and doesn’t concede to Trump at the end of April, like Kasich is currently doing, Cruz comes across as unrealistic, out of touch and a sore loser.

Overall based on the numbers, because it is highly unlikely East Coast Republicans will vote for a Canadian- born Texan for President over a New York billionaire, April will be Cruz’s last hurrah.

 

 

Reagan’s Recovery at least Three times better than Obama’s Socialist Solution

On April 29th 2015 Jim Hoft shared that Obama’s just like Reagan… Except when he isn’t.

Obama Reagan on Time

Trickle Down Economics versus Trickle Down Socialism

As noted last year – Barack Obama’s economic policies have slowed the economy to a halt when compared with Reagan’s economic recovery. Here is an update with 2015 year end data showing Annual GDP Growth comparisons:

Yr 7 GDP % Change

(Chart by Joe Hoft)

Per updated data reported by the US Dept of Commerce – Bureau of Economic Analysis as of January 29, 2016, the average annual GDP growth rate for Obama in his first 7 years in office is a dismal 2.9%. Reagan’s recovery on the other hand averaged a 7.9% annual GDP growth rate for his first 7 years in office. Reagan’s policies led to an average annual increase in GDP of nearly 3 times that of Obama’s policies.

In addition, as noted last year, Obama’s job growth is also much worse than Reagan’s record with more people being added to food-stamp rolls than the job rolls under Obama.

More… The Obama Economic Record: The Worst Five Years Since World War II