Trump Could Lose 8 of the 10 Remaining Primaries and Still Reach 1237 by June 6th

Also posted by Jim Hoft at www.thegatewaypundit.com

After sweeping all five primaries that occurred this past week (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania) Trump has a total of 994 delegates.

Delegate Count 4-29 AP

Cruz currently shows with 566 delegates and there are only 572 delegates remaining. Cruz needs 671 delegates to win the nomination and therefore he is mathematically eliminated from the race.

However, Trump will win the nomination on June 7th –

Based on current delegate counts Trump could win all the delegates in the elections between now and June 7th and will still not have quite enough to win the nomination before this date. Trump has a tremendous amount of momentum and will win most, if not all of these delegates.  Trump will win the nomination outright on June 7th.

Delegate Count 4-29 Trump wins June 7th

 

Trump could lose 8 of the 10 remaining states (Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota) and yet still win the nomination with wins in New Jersey and California and good showings in the primaries that award delegates proportionally. Because of this, it is very clear that Trump will win the nomination on June 7th.

 

As previously noted –

 

** Trump leads all Republican candidates with 994 delegates and has more delegates than all the other Republican candidates combined.

** Trump now leads all Republican and Democratic candidates with 23 primary wins (Cruz has 4 while Hillary has 21).

** Trump leads all candidates in states won – 26 – now more than half of the US.

** Trump needs only 42% of the remaining outstanding delegates to win the nomination

 

We would also predict that Carly Fiorina will serve as the shortest termed Vice Presidential candidate in US history but it is highly unlikely that Cruz will resign from the campaign, even after an Indiana loss, until June 7th.

 

Hat tip Jim Hoft

 

Moving Forward=> DONALD TRUMP Only Needs 43% of Remaining Delegates to Win Nomination

Moving Forward=> DONALD TRUMP Only Needs 43% of Remaining Delegates to Win Nomination

Also posted by Jim Hoft at www.thegatewaypundit.com

After sweeping all five primaries that occurred Tuesday – Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania – Donald Trump has 987 delegates, Cruz has 562 with 622 remaining.

Delegate count 4-28

Ted Cruz was mathematically eliminated on Tuesday night.

There are fewer delegates remaining than we originally projected because the delegates in Wyoming, Colorado and North Dakota were allocated in corrupt voter-less elections. But our April 2nd projections for Trump and Cruz were very, very close.

Trump was awarded another 40 Pennsylvania delegates on Wednesday which brings his total to 987.

Donald Trump only needs 250 more delegates to secure the Republican nomination.

Delegate Count 4-28 - chart

Chart by Joe Hoft

Overall for Trump –

** Donald Trump won every county in every state on Tuesday.

** Donald Trump only needs to win 43% of the remaining delegates to secure the GOP nomination.

** Trump leads all Republican candidates with 987 delegates and has more delegates than all the other Republican candidates combined.

** Trump now leads all Republican and Democratic candidates with 23 primary wins (Cruz has 4 while Hillary has 21).

** Trump leads all candidates in states won – 26 (primaries and caucuses) – now more than half of the states and territories.

 

Trump Doing Better than Hillary – Sanders and Cruz EliminaTED

As we predicted previously, as of Tuesday night, April 26th Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders are officially eliminated from winning their respective nominations outright.

After sweeping all five primaries that occurred today (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania) Donald Trump has 950 delegates, Cruz has 560 with 622 remaining. Our April 2nd projections for Trump and Cruz were overall very close to where they are today.

Of Trump, Cruz, Sanders and Hillary –

** Trump leads with 23 primary wins

** Trump leads in states won with 26

** Trump has the highest percentage of primary wins (85%)

** Trump has the highest percent of overall state wins (68%)

** Trump has the highest percent of primary delegates (71%)

** Trump has the highest percent of overall delegates (63%)

** And Trump leads with the highest percent of overall votes (59%)

Delegate Count 4-26 Rep and Dem 

 

Charts by Joe Hoft (data from RealClearPolitics)

(Note although not noted at RealClearPolitics.com caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to these results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)

Overall Trump continues to outshine all the candidates while competing against 16 primary opponents.

To date, the Democratic race has been tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 519 to 39 for Sanders which are not included in these totals.)

Hillary lost Rhode Island yesterday to Socialist Sanders. Some pundits are calling for Bernie to step out of the race, but he is actually doing much better than Ted Cruz on the Republican side with more wins, votes and delegates.

 

Trump Needs only 46% of Remaining Outstanding Delegates to Win Nomination – Cruz Officially EliminaTED

As we predicted and posted on April 2nd, as of today April 26th Ted Cruz is officially eliminated from winning the Republican nomination outright.

Our overall projections on April 2nd were very close to the actual results.  We predicted on April 2nd that Trump would have 953 delegates as of today (needing only 284 delegates for the nomination) and that Cruz would have 550 delegates as of today (needing 687 to win the nomination). We also predicted that only 634 delegates would remain as of today and therefore Cruz would need more delegates than would be available.

After sweeping all five primaries that occurred today (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania) Trump has 950 delegates, Cruz has 560 with 622 remaining. There are fewer delegates remaining than we originally projected because the delegates in Wyoming, Colorado and North Dakota were allocated in corrupt voter less elections after April 2nd. But our April 2nd projections for Trump and Cruz were overall very close.

Overall for Trump –

** Trump leads all Republican candidates with 950 delegates and has more delegates than all the other Republican candidates combined.

** Trump now leads all Republican and Democratic candidates with 23 primary wins (Cruz has 4 while Hillary has 21).

** Trump leads all candidates in states won – 26 – now more than half of the US.

** Per data from thegreenpapers.com Trump is the only Republican candidate to have held 66% of the delegates awarded at one time during this campaign (after the South Carolina win).

** For that matter, Trump is the only Republican candidate to have held more than 35% of the delegates awarded at any one time.

** Trump has held more than 40% of the delegates awarded at any given time since the South Carolina win.

** Trump currently holds 50% of the delegates awarded to date and needs only 46% of the remaining outstanding delegates to win the nomination

Delegate Count 4-26 after East Coast Sweep

 

 

From this day forward it is going to be very difficult, if not impossible, for the Cruz campaign to try and convince voters that they are staying in the race to win the election. The Cruz campaign has a difficult case to make in that Cruz has the same legitimacy to the nomination as Trump now that Trump has 23 primary wins to Cruz’s 4!

From this point forward the momentum is with Trump, he has moved from the frontrunner to the presumptive GOP nominee. Cruz and Kasich would be smart to put their individual aspirations aside and begin helping the GOP to beat Hillary. The unification of the party is now on them.

 

IT’S OFFICIAL=> Ted Cruz Is Mathematically ELIMINATED from GOP Race – With Chart

 

Also posted by Jim Hoft on Apr 26th, 2016 at www.thegatewaypundit.com

As we predicted on April 2nd….    As of today, April 26, 2016, Ted Cruz is mathematically eliminated from winning the Republican nomination outright.

Delegate Count 4-26 after East Coast Sweep

On April 2nd we predicted that Donald Trump would have 953 delegates as of today (needing only 284 delegates for the nomination) and that Cruz would have 550 delegates as of today (needing 687 to win the nomination).

We also predicted that only 634 delegates would remain and therefore Cruz would need more delegates than would be available.

Ted Cruz is eliminated.  It is clear that Cruz was eliminated tonight. It is not clear yet on how devastating the final numbers will be for Ted Cruz.

After winning all five primaries tonight —  Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania — Donald Trump has 950 delegates so far.

Ted Cruz finished third in Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware and Rhode Island.

There are fewer delegates remaining than we originally projected because the delegates in Wyoming, Colorado and North Dakota were allocated in shady voter-less elections after April 2nd.

After tonight’s primaries Cruz has — 560 delegates after winning one delegate Tuesday. Cruz needs 677 delegates to reach 1,237 delegates. There are only 622 available. It’s over.

Above is the updated chart with tonight’s results.

Our April 2nd projections for Trump and Cruz were very close to the actual results.

Ted Cruz is Mathematically Eliminated from winning the GOP nomination outright and has fewer wins than Bernie Sanders.

 

DONALD TRUMP Outperforming Hillary Clinton Despite Competing Against 16 Opponents

As posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com by Jim Hoft Apr 23rd, 2016 9:02 am

Trump

Presidential contender Donald Trump has done very well in spite of the 16 opponents he has faced.

Hillary Clinton is behind Trump in many categories and she has really only had only one competitor in Socialist Bernie Sanders. Here are a few amazing statistics on Donald Trump’s historic presidential run.

** As most people know, Trump had 16 Republican opponents

** Per data from thegreenpapers.com, Trump is the only Republican candidate to have held 66% of the delegates awarded at one time during this campaign (after the South Carolina win).

** For that matter, Trump is the only Republican candidate to have held more than 35% of the delegates awarded at any one time.

** Trump has held more than 40% of the delegates awarded at any given time since the South Carolina win. (Trump currently holds 47% of the delegates awarded to date and he should be back at 50% after Tuesday’s primaries out East where he is heavily favored.)

** There have been 9 Republican Candidates to win delegates in this election cycle to 3 for the Democrats.

Donald Trump had more competition than Democrat Hillary Clinton  but he still leads her in numerous categories.

As previously reported, Trump has:

** More primary wins (18)

** More overall state wins (21)

** The highest percentage of primary wins (82%)

** The highest percent of overall state wins (64%)

** The highest percent of primary delegates (68%)

** The highest percent of overall delegates (60%)

** And Trump now leads all these candidates in the highest percent of overall votes (58%).

Trump continues to truly outshine all candidates.

On the other hand, as previously reported, Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by this Tuesday, April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity too.

Cruz needs two out of every three delegates next Tuesday to stay alive but he is way behind Trump in polling and currently in 3rd place in many of these states and therefore will be finished on Tuesday.

Bernie too will be mathematically eliminated from gaining enough delegates on Tuesday. Bernie currently needs a little less than half of the delegates next week to stay alive but is also behind in the polls to Hillary.

 

Trump Still Outperforming Cruz, Sanders and Hillary! Cruz and Sanders Both Done Officially in 5 Days!

Also posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com by Jim Hoft on April 21st

 Update to post on April 16th

Donald Trump, after New York, increased his results against Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in the elections to date. The results of elections in primaries and caucuses to date (as of Thursday April 21st) show that Trump continues to outshine all the candidates.

Delegate Count 4-21 Rep

Delegate Count 4-21 Dem

Charts by Joe Hoft (data from RealClearPolitics)

Trump has –

** More primary wins (18) ** More overall state wins (21) ** The highest percentage of primary wins (82%) ** The highest percent of overall state wins (64%) ** The highest percent of primary delegates (68%) ** The highest percent of overall delegates (60%) ** And Trump now leads all candidates in the highest percent of overall votes (58%).

And Donald Trump was competing against 16 primary opponents.

(Note although not noted at RealClearPolitics.com caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to these results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)

To date, the Democratic race has been tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 502 to 38 for Sanders which are not included in these totals.) It continues to be very clear that both Cruz and Sanders benefit from caucuses over primaries.

As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity too. Cruz needs two out of every three delegates next Tuesday to stay alive but he is way behind Trump in polling and currently in 3rd place in some of these states and therefore will be done Tuesday per data from RCP.

Bernie too will be mathematically eliminated from gaining enough delegates by next Tuesday. He currently needs a little less than half of the delegates next week to stay alive but is also behind in the polls to Hillary.

Bernie, like Cruz, will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright next week.

Trump Only Needs 53% of Remaining Delegates to Win – In a Week He’ll Need Less than 50% and Cruz Will Be Mathematically Finished

Also posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com on April 20, 2016 by Jim Hoft

On Tuesday Donald Trump won New York with over 60% of the votes giving him a comfortable lead over Senator Ted Cruz in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Trump walked away with 89 of the 95 delegates and nearly half a million votes. Senator Cruz unfortunately won no delegates after winning only 15% of the vote.

Delegate Count 4-19 after NY AP

As of today Trump only needs 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. Unfortunately for Cruz next week there are five more primaries out East and Donald Trump is the heavy favorite in these states. As reported previously Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by next Tuesday, April 26th. On the other hand, with conservative estimates, Trump will need less than 50% of the remaining delegates after next week to win the election.

Delegate Count 4-19 after NY2

In recent weeks many Cruz supporters have reported that Cruz was on a roll. In an article titled “This is the week that Ted Cruz won the Republican nomination”, Redstate cheered –

  • “Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump”
  • “Cruz domination”
  • “Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237.”
  • “Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz.  Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.”

It now looks like this was all biased and hopeful expectations.

‘Lying Ted’ Cruz tweets Trump about Recent Votes that are Double the Reportable Numbers!

Also posted by Jim Hoft at www.thegatewaypundit.com

Ted Cruz tweeted Donald Trump today and stated that he has won the last five (Republican Contests) in a row and more than 1.3mm voted for the Senator over this same time period.

Cruz Tweet

But these numbers are not what are reported on the RealClearPolitics (RCP) website. For the caucuses in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota the only votes reported were in Utah where Cruz reportedly won 122,567 votes. In the primary in Wisconsin Cruz won 531,129 votes. Combined this is only a little over 650,000 votes or about half the number of votes that Cruz says he has won.

Also, the Arizona primary was the same night as the Utah caucus, so the Senator must be suggesting that the Utah event ended after the Arizona primary in order to make his claim that he won the last five contests in a row.

Ironically the very first response to Cruz’s tweet calls Cruz a ‘sellout’ and a ‘liar’.

Cruz Tweet Response

The Senator’s tweet is even more remarkable after the manner in which he captured votes in the caucuses in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota. Much has been written about these contests being stolen by the Republican establishment and Cruz. If Cruz wanted to win the election instead of the caucuses he would have stood up and called for actual elections in these states but instead he is bragging about his ‘wins’ which is no doubt killing the image he wants to portray of himself as the fair minded and democratic statesman.

Unfortunately for Cruz the next and final 16 state races are all primaries and Donald Trump is the heavy favorite in the next six state elections that will be held on the East Coast and many of the rest. As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity in many of these state elections by April end too.

In addition, Cruz is lagging behind all four of the current candidates in wins, delegates and votes (and this is after recording wins for him in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota where no votes or wins are reported by RCP.) The results of elections in primaries and caucuses to date (as of Sunday April 17th) show that Trump outshines all the candidates.

Trump has Donald Trump has:

** More primary wins (17)

** More overall state wins (20)

** The highest percentage of primary wins (81%)

** The highest percent of overall state wins (63%)

** The highest percent of primary delegates (65%)

** The highest percent of overall delegates (58%)

** And Trump ties Hillary for the highest percent of overall votes (57%).

It is clear that Cruz wants to send a message that he is on a roll but in less than 9 days he will be mathematically out of the race and falling in popularity. This tweet was not a good idea for Cruz who Trump calls ‘Lying Ted’.

Trump outperforming Hilary, Cruz and Sanders! Cruz and Sanders both done on April 26th!

This was also posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com by Jim Hoft on April 16.

Donald Trump is not only outperforming Ted Cruz in the election to date, he also outperforms Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as well. The results of elections in primaries and caucuses to date (as of Sunday April 17th) show that Trump outshines all the candidates.

Delegate Count 4-17 Rep

Delegate Count 4-17 Dem

Trump has more primary wins (17), more overall state wins (20), the highest percentage of primary wins (81%), the highest percent of overall state wins (63%), the highest percent of primary delegates (65%), the highest percent of overall delegates (58%), and he ties Hillary for the highest percent of overall votes (57%).

(This data above is obtained from the RealClearPolitics.com website. Caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to the results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)

To date, the Democratic race is much tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 469 to 31 for Sanders.) Also, it is very clear that both Cruz and Sanders benefit from caucuses over primaries.

With the next and final 16 state races all being primaries both Trump and Hillary should benefit. As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity in many of these state elections by April end too.

Bernie too most likely will be mathematically eliminated from gaining enough delegates by April 26th. He currently has 1040 delegates and needs 2382 to win the election which means he needs 1342 of the remaining 1627 delegates to win the nomination. There are only 16 caucuses between Tuesday in New York and June 14th. There are 631 delegates between now and April 26th to be gained and Hillary is leading in most of these states. Bernie will need at least 326 of the 631 delegates distributed by April 26th to remain in the race and even if he gains this many, he will have to win all the remaining races to have enough delegates to win the nomination. With Hillary leading in these East Coast states it is very probable that Bernie, like Cruz, will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th.