China’s Economy Slowing Down – the World’s 2nd Largest Economy in Turmoil! A Major World-wide Recession May Be on the Horizon

China Map

Bloomberg reported today that China’s economy is again slowing down after there were hopes for a recovery in March.  April data released today shows that industrial output, retail and investment all missed estimates.  The poor data dashes hopes that China’s economy is on the rebound and is a cause for concern for all economies around the world due to the size of China’s economy, the world’s 2nd largest to the US. 

Another report notes that China’s economy, grew only 6.9% last year, which is the slowest the country has grown in a quarter of a century.

China like the US now faces a huge amount of debt. Much of China’s debt was generated by local governments which funded incredible amounts of infrastructure projects but at the same time have built ghost cities and roads-to-nowhere as local officials took advantage ultra-low borrowing rates. Some estimates show China’s debt-to-GDP ratio at more than 240% at the end of 2015.  (The US’s debt to GDP was at 104% in 2015 – not counting unfunded liabilities.)

China’s state-owned rail corporation alone is reportedly more than $600 billion in debt, which is almost twice the size of Greece’s obligations. Greece, whose debt crisis has needed repeated bailouts, had an estimated public debt of $356 billion at the end of 2015.

China also has a significant number of unsold houses and sagging exports. In response to its sagging exports, China’s government has approved measures to boost exports but these actions have worsened relationships with trading partners that say Beijing is flooding their markets with unfairly low-priced steel and other goods.

Another area of concern in China is the non-performing (bad) loans on the books of its commercial banks. These loans are estimated to be around $706 billion with the number increasing at an increasing rate.  Many analysts believe the situation is actually far worse than this with some estimates that China’s bad loans are between 15% and 19% of all loans outstanding.

With China, Europe, the US and Japan all in terrible shape economically, maybe Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump is right in suggesting the US is heading towards a massive recession.

 

While Trump is on a Roll – Hillary is Getting Rolled Over by Sanders!

Donald Trump is running away with the Republican nomination for President but Hillary is getting steamrolled by Sanders. Bernie Sanders won the second primary in a row and is on more of a roll than Clinton. Per a review of the results of elections to date of the final four candidates, Trump outshines them all.

Delegate Count 5-11 Rep and Dem

Trump has more primary wins (26), more overall state wins (29), the highest percentage of primary wins (87%), the highest percent of overall state wins (71%), the highest percent of primary delegates (74%), the highest percent of overall delegates (67%), and the highest percentage of delegates (60%) than the other top three candidates.

(This data above is obtained from the RealClearPolitics.com website. Caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to the results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)

To date, the Democratic race is much tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 523 to 39 for Sanders).

Although Bernie was mathematically eliminated a few weeks ago on June 6th, he has now for the second week in a row beaten Hillary Clinton in a primary.

 

Trump Sweeps West Virginia and Nebraska Primaries – Needs Only 99 Delegates to Win Nomination!

Billionaire Donald Trump swept the West Virginia and Nebraska primaries today. After taking all of the delegates in these two states he now needs less than 100 delegates to win the Republican Nomination for President.

Delegate Count 5-11 AP

Trump only needs 99 delegates to win the nomination. Based on current counts and as noted previously, Trump will reach the number of delegates to win the Nomination outright on Tuesday June 7th.   Senator Ted Cruz suspended his campaign after the Indiana primary and won no delegates.

After sweeping the past 9 primaries Trump Donald Trump now has 1,138 delegates; more than double Cruz’s delegate count of 564 with 435 remaining.

Trump now has a clear road to the nomination.

** Trump leads all candidates with 26 primary wins (Cruz has 4)

** Trump leads all candidates with 29 states won

** Trump requires only 23% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination

Delegate Count 5-7 Chart

 

Chart by Joe Hoft

Overall Trump continues to outshine all the candidates while competing against 16 primary opponents.

 

Hillary’s Emails Hacked by Russia – Kremlin Deciding Whether to Release 20,000 Emails Hacked

 

Hillary Clinton 

The Kremlin is debating whether to release the 20,000 emails they have hacked off of Hillary Clinton’s server. 

According to a report from four days ago, beginning in 2011, the Russians began monitoring Romanian computer hacker Marcel Lazăr Lehel (aka Guccifer) after he attempted, unsuccessfully, to break into the computer system of the Russian funded RT television network.

After monitoring Guccifer, the Russians were reportedly able to record (both physically and electronically) his actions which allowed the Russian intelligence analysts, in 2013, to not only detect his breaking into the private computer of Secretary Clinton, but also break in and copy all of its contents as well.

The report notes that shortly after Russia obtained Clinton’s emails, they released a limited amount to RT TV which were published in an article in March 2013, titled Hillary Clinton’s ‘hacked’ Benghazi emails: FULL RELEASE.  Apparently no Western journalists promoted this story.  A couple of years later, in 2016, the US then brought in Guccifer for questioning related to this incident.  According to the report, NBC news knew why Guccifer was being questioned but withheld this information from the American public.

The Associated Press reported in October 2015 that “Hillary Clinton’s private email server maintained in her home while serving as secretary of State was possibly hacked by Russia-tied authorities, and others, on five separate occasions.”

The AP report noted that investigators discovered among Clinton’s cache of released emails malicious software aimed at transmitting data to three overseas computers, including at least one in Russia. This malicious software was reportedly activated by clicking on it; but in October it was not clear if Clinton actually opened these messages or not, per the AP.

Recently separate reports have come out noting that Guccifer had indeed hacked Clinton’s emails.  Now according to this latest report, Clinton’s server was not only compromised by Guccifer but also by Russia.

In Exactly One Month – on June 7th – Donald Trump will Surpass 1,237 Delegates to Win the Republican Presidential Nomination

Delegate Count 5-7 AP

In exactly one month on June 7th billionaire businessman Donald Trump will clinch the Republican Presidential nomination by surpassing 1,237 delegates – the amount necessary to clinch the nomination.  It is inevitable he will surpass this number on June 7th because of his current delegate count and the number of delegates awarded through this day.

Delegate Count 5-7 Chart

New Jersey will probably be the first state to announce its results on June 7th as it is the only East Coast state with an election on that day.  Currently Trump is up by 41% in New Jersey.  If Trump wins all the delegates between now and June 7th he will surpass 1,237 delegates as a result of the New Jersey primary results. 

By the end of the night on June 7th Trump will have captured more than 61% of all the Republican delegates!  He will have set a new record for most votes by a Republican candidate in the primaries and will have won 36 states including 33 primaries.  He will have beaten the best field in US history for either party with 17 bona fide candidates at the beginning of the race.

Speaker Ryan Lied – Said Trump Had Plurality but Didn’t Have Majority!

Also posted at www.thegatewaypundit.com

Yesterday Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan told Jake Tapper on CNN he was “not ready” to endorse Donald Trump and then right after that said that the bulk of the burden to unite the party was on the nominee (Trump).

Ryan then said –

“I don’t want to underplay what he (Trump) accomplished. He needs to be congratulated for an enormous accomplishment for winning now a plurality of delegates and he’s on his way to winning a majority of delegates.”

This was a lie. Trump not only holds a plurality of delegates to date, he also holds a majority of delegates to date as well!

According to data at thegreenpapers.com Trump currently leads all candidates with 1057 delegates. There have only been 2029 delegates related to the states with primaries and caucuses to date. Based on this, Trump has not only won a plurality (more delegates than anyone of his competitors) but he has also won a majority of delegates from state caucuses and primaries to date with more than 52% of the delegates awarded to date.

All the other candidates combined have only won a combined 916 delegates to date. There also have been another 56 delegates to date that are either not committed or unallocated. By winning more delegates than any one of his competitors Trump has won a plurality. By winning more than 50% of the delegates Trump has won a majority.  Trump also needs only 36% of the remaining delegates after Indiana to win the nomination (per data from greenpapers).

Not only did Speaker Ryan not endorse Trump and then place the blame for not uniting the party on Trump, but he lied about Trump’s current standing in the election by stating Trump did not have a majority.

What a piece of work!

Why Cruz Suspended His Campaign? – The Numbers Don’t Lie

Ted Cruz suspended his campaign after Tuesday’s Indiana primary. When you look at numbers it is clear that Ted was done.

After Trump swept the last 7 primaries it was over for Cruz. Donald Trump now has 1047 delegates; Cruz has 565 with 520 remaining. Trump now has a clear road to the nomination. A comparison between the top two contenders in each party show that Trump is far ahead of all candidates and Cruz was clearly in a position to step out of the race.

Of Trump, Cruz, Sanders and Hillary –

 

** Trump leads all candidates with 24 primary wins (Cruz has 4)
** Trump leads in states won with 27
** Trump has the highest percentage of primary wins (86%)
** Trump has the highest percent of overall state wins (69%)
** Trump has the highest percent of primary delegates (73%)
** Trump has the highest percent of overall delegates (65%)
** And Trump leads with the highest percent of overall votes (59%)

 Delegate Count 5-4 Rep and Dem after Indiana

 

Charts by Joe Hoft (data from RealClearPolitics)

(Note although not noted at RealClearPolitics.com caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to these results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)

Overall Trump continues to outshine all the candidates while competing against 16 primary opponents. Cruz was clearly at the dropping out point.

To date, the Democratic race has been tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 520 to 39 for Sanders which are not included in these totals.)

Hillary has now lost Rhode Island last week and Indiana yesterday to Socialist Sanders in the past two weeks. Some pundits were calling for Bernie to step out of the race as he was mathematically eliminated last week, but now he has momentum heading into the upcoming primaries in May and June. And of course, Hillary could be indicted any time between now and November which is a good reason for Bernie to stay in the race.

 

After Indiana Bernie Sanders has a Case for Staying in the Race – Ted Cruz Does Not

As we face today’s Indiana’s primary election, both Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz are staying in the Presidential race for their respective party nominations but really only Sanders has a legitimate reason to stay in. When looking at numbers from Real Clear Politics going into today’s primary, Sanders has won 17 states, including Rhode Island last week to Hillary Clinton’s 23 states. Cruz has only won 12 states and only 4 primaries compared to Donald Trump’s 26 states and 23 primaries. Also, Cruz hasn’t won a primary since Wisconsin a month ago.

Delegate Count 5-3 Rep and Dem b4 Indiana

(Note although not noted at RealClearPolitics.com caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to these results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above. Also, the above data does not include Democratic super delegate votes which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 520 to 39 for Sanders.)

To date, the Democratic race between Sanders and Hillary Clinton has been tighter than the Republican race between Cruz and Trump based on wins, delegates and votes.

Cruz has said that Donald Trump will not reach the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, but Trump is up in the polls in Indiana with a RCP average of 11%. With Trump winning the past 6 states and Indiana today, Cruz’s case is very weak and he should consider stepping out of the race.

On the other hand, Sanders has every reason to stay in the race with Hillary Clinton up only 6.8% in Indiana and the gap closing. But more importantly, Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, is being investigated by the FBI for an email scandal that took place when she was Secretary of State. The FBI has been at it for some time and this is not good for Clinton or the Democratic Party. Just as Democrats agreed with Cruz’s attacks against Trump, Republicans can appreciate any comments made by Sanders supporters about the Hillary scandal. If Hillary gets indicted at any time before the Democratic convention, she may be toast and Sanders will be there to claim the nomination.

After today Sanders should stay in, Cruz should step out.

Trump Will Win Republican Nomination for President on June 7th (He could lose 8 of 10 Remaining States and Still Win Nomination)

After sweeping six primaries on the East Coast the past two weeks (New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania), Donald Trump has accumulated 996 delegates in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination and now only needs 241 delegates to win the nomination.

Delegate Count 5-1 AP

Senator Ted Cruz currently shows with 565 delegates and there are only 571 delegates remaining. Cruz needs 672 delegates to win the nomination and therefore as noted previously is mathematically eliminated from the race.

Based on current delegate counts Trump could win all 199 of the delegates in the primaries between now and June 7th and will still not have enough delegates to win the nomination before this date. Trump has a tremendous amount of momentum and will win most, if not all of these delegates.  Then with 303 delegates to be distributed on June 7th, it is very clear that Donald Trump will win the nomination outright on that date.

Delegate Count 5-1 Chart

 

 As previously noted –

Trump could lose 8 of the 10 remaining states (Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota) and still win the nomination with wins in New Jersey and California and good showings in the primaries that award delegates proportionally.  (See example below)

Delegate Count 5-1 Chart Cruz winning 8

 

Senator Cruz should very much consider suspending his campaign after Tuesday’s Indiana primary.